The Future of Abortion, By the Numbers

What we know about stuff nobody knows

I think abortion should be legal, so I’m unhappy that it will probably soon be illegal in many parts of the country. I don’t really feel mad because I’ve already been through that; this outcome was one of the reasons why I was mad when Mitch McConnell wouldn’t hold hearings for Merrick Garland. It was one of the reasons why I was mad when Trump won. And it was one of the reasons why I was mad when people said it was sexist to suggest that an octogenarian with chronic health problems should retire instead of imagining that you can girlboss away cancer using dumbbells and sassy sweatshirts.

The future of abortion lies with state and federal legislatures. What does that future look like? If you’re in the market for some wild-ass guesses that have an aura of statistical legitimacy but that also possess an asterisk the size of a supermassive black hole, please keep reading. I’ll try to pick out a few scant beacons that are visible through the fog. Of course, I should also note that none of us know how this ruling will change the politics of abortion; it will have ripple effects that are impossible to predict, which is basic chaos theory, which is the one mathematical theory that everyone knows because it was in Jurassic Park.