Entertaining and extremely edifying! Thanks for your research & sharing your unique perspective. Sharing with my 40-something son! Really enjoying your work.
Ty Cobb's reputation as a super-racist may be undeserved.
"Cobb himself was never asked about segregation until 1952, when the Texas League was integrating, and Sporting News asked him what he thought. “The Negro should be accepted wholeheartedly, and not grudgingly,” he said. “The Negro has the right to play professional baseball and whose [sic] to say he has not?” By that time he had attended many Negro league games, sometimes throwing out the first ball and often sitting in the dugout with the players. He is quoted as saying that Willie Mays was the only modern-day player he’d pay to see and that Roy Campanella was the ballplayer that reminded him most of himself."
Very entertaining. One thing that really struck me about the Russo-Japanese war in a book I read was that just getting the Russian fleet to the Pacific took 6 months; they were coal-fired and they had to be bunkered and refueled every few days....and then they got sunk right away.
(The following has zero relevance to the post. Go ahead and ignore.)
Note to IMBW Marketing: Today I was reviewing my recurring expenses and realized that many of them were for things that are stupid and / or worthless. Then I noticed that a subscription to IMBW is significantly less stupid than, and not nearly as worthless as, other items for which I pay more money. So I subscribed.
Now, whenever my ENT doc goes up my nose and pulls out the crayon lodged in my brain, the payline is gonna go up. At that time, there’s no guarantee that some impulse-purchased Substack subscription will make the cut. On the other hand, I may find that I need ever-increasing hits of this stuff to stop the tremors, in which case I’ll go back to Subscribe and kick it up a notch. Or I’ll just cruise along as I’m doing; we’ll see how it goes.
Fwiw, as a Ukrainian descended from rural kulaks, Hank Jr.’s “A Country Boy Can Survive” would be the literal story of my family if it had some balalaika….and I mean this as the highest compliment to both Hank and my ancestors…..
Jeff writes: "And, of course, what counts as an 'acceptable' concession is up to Ukraine, but we should probably think about fig leaves that Putin might be able to hide behind so that he can say 'I won' even though he didn’t."
To this point, I've developed a 4-point truce framework for consideration:
1. Hand over Crimea as officially Russia's.
>> This is fine because when Russia "took it" in 2014, Crimeans were (reportedly) fine with it. No resistance at all. And the international community essentially accepted it without a lot of puffery if we're being honest. So, might as well give Putin a "win" to tout at home for all of his invasion efforts. His "exit ramp" if you will.
2. The Future of the Donbas Region: Organize a vote and let them decide, democratically, which country they want to be associated with.
>> This lets self-governing rule the day which will annoy the hell out of Putin, but it does give Zelenskyy a tool to say "you might end up with even more of former Ukraine if they think you've earned their loyalty. Let's find out!"
3. Ukraine agrees to never join NATO unless provoked by Russia. If provoked, Ukraine would instantly join NATO.
>> This puts Ukraine's NATO alliance firmly in Russia's court. If Russia leaves Ukraine alone, Ukraine never joins NATO. Just like what Russia desires. But if Russia screws with Ukraine, Ukraine instantly joins NATO. The result? RUSSIA DECIDES if Ukraine joins NATO or not.
4. Economic sanctions against the Russian people (not the Oligarchs or Putin, yet) will be lifted slowly in accordance with how much Russia funds the rebuilding of what they broke/destroyed during the invasion.
>> This gives the world (and companies) an "off-ramp" to try to get 144 million people back into the global economy. Making Russia a complete pariah state might feel good, but it's bad for commerce; bad for everyone else's economy; and bad for the Russian culture.
Crimea was Russian since Ekaterina the Great until the forming of the USSR, and it remained ethnically predominantly Russian throughout until today. It's out of the USSR's dissolution that Crimea somehow emerged Ukrainian, due to a USSR-internal "transfer on paper".
So yea, that might work.
>2. The Future of the Donbas Region: Organize a vote and let them decide, democratically, which country they want to be associated with.
In 2021, UN recorded over 3000 killed civilians in Luhansk+Donetsk in the conflict ongoing since 2014 (+ another 10000 soldiers), cumulative. Predominantly separatists killed by Ukrainians, less so Ukrainians killed by separatists. This is all before Putin's 2022 invasion. And yes, the Azov battalion did play a prominent role in all that.
If you wish to leave it to a vote, sure, that might work - but bear in mind the above eight years of killing when deciding where to draw the borders. If you draw it around the separatist areas, they will vote for joining Russia in an eyeblink. If you "dilute" that vote by including enough of the neighbouring region, the vote will be to stay in Ukraine - but you will then also retain a nasty arrangement with a mountain of hostilities.
>3. Ukraine agrees to never join NATO unless provoked by Russia. If provoked, Ukraine would instantly join NATO.
*This* should be the #1 - nay, the #0.
Maurer evidently perceives spheres of influence about as much as a fish perceives water. I.e. at best, they *might* exist if it's about Russia exerting influence in Belarus, or Saudi and Iran fighting it out over influence in Yemen, or everybody and their uncle fighting it out over influence in Syria. Or at worst, the creeping unease about how far exactly China's influence is reaching. (how much of Africa did China claim yet?)
But do spheres of influence exist when it comes to the spread of the globalist empire? "No siree. That's just the water, you see. You sir are just a deluded believer in the history of a dozen preceding centuries - except for the current century in which history has already ended, as we all know."
So, big yea on that one. Even better might be to resurrect the defunct "Unaligned Movement", the one kickstarted by Nasser, Nehru and Tito last century, which is also one of the underappreciated reasons for why the last century had not in fact seen WWIII explode. An "Unaligned 2.0" if you will, which a host of countries could join if they really wished to retain independence from the encroaching big powers. (well, since the current century lacks the equivalent of Nasser, Nehru and Tito, it means that the "Mexican-standoff substitute-for-unalignment" which you formulated above, might indeed be the best bet)
>4. Economic sanctions against the Russian people (not the Oligarchs or Putin, yet) will be lifted slowly in accordance with how much Russia funds the rebuilding of what they broke/destroyed during the invasion.
I'm onboard with economic sanctions specifically against Putin & The Oligarchs, but never saw a "moral" justification in economic sanctions against Russian people. There's also the seldom-mentioned but real sanctions against a bunch of other ordinary people who are affected by the explosion in carbohydrate prices, by the reduction in the supply of food (Russia's agricultural exports exceed its carbohydrate exports) etc. OK yes, I know, there's such a long list of cases where economic sanctions *did* result in the overthrow of a regime - a list so long that it would leave a post-it note virtually empty, but still make it immoral to *not* impose sanctions.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Very insightful. Sadly, and oddly, this very same truce framework was banned and removed from the /ukraine subreddit? A shame... many people apparently see it as gaslighting Ukraine.
It's a shame indeed. That fourteen-years-long flirting with NATO membership is the reason why Putin was *able* to assault Ukraine, and depressingly few people in the West understand that (or *wish* to understand that).
Putin *might or might not* have a brain tumor, but it's massively unlikely that all Russian generals have one.
Putin *is* an autocrat, but it's completely unlikely that he *could* launch any "military operation" that does not also have a heartfelt buy-in from the Russian generals.
Russian generals might or might not have heartfelt views on what should be the relations between Russia and the World Economic Forum, or on how much of Russia's reserves should be held in roubles, dollars or gold. But they *will* have heartfelt views on immediate-neighbour X agreeing to let NATO plant its roots on Russia's borders. (past the 1997 Yeltzin-the-Drunk era, at least). On that front, the Russian generals' buy-in is a given.
Fact is that the Russian army has engaged neighbour after neighbour, *after* the said neighbours started taking the NATO hardline. From its side, NATO a.k.a. the "purely defensive alliance" has attacked Lybia after Afghanistan after Serbia, but has fortunately not attacked Russia *yet*.
Did Ukraininans provide more resistance than Russian military planners thought? Practically certainly yes. But - as any observer may note - the Russian generals did not even *blink*. And for as long as NATO is on the table, I'm afraid that they won't.
Absent the "Unaligned 2.0", the Mexican standoff might indeed be the only way of assuring a non-WWIII end to this tragedy.
Entertaining and extremely edifying! Thanks for your research & sharing your unique perspective. Sharing with my 40-something son! Really enjoying your work.
Good article. I know enough history to see that you did your research, and you had me entertained all the way through.
Ty Cobb's reputation as a super-racist may be undeserved.
"Cobb himself was never asked about segregation until 1952, when the Texas League was integrating, and Sporting News asked him what he thought. “The Negro should be accepted wholeheartedly, and not grudgingly,” he said. “The Negro has the right to play professional baseball and whose [sic] to say he has not?” By that time he had attended many Negro league games, sometimes throwing out the first ball and often sitting in the dugout with the players. He is quoted as saying that Willie Mays was the only modern-day player he’d pay to see and that Roy Campanella was the ballplayer that reminded him most of himself."
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/who-was-ty-cobb-the-history-we-know-thats-wrong/
Interesting. I did once hear Buck O'Neil say "Yes, Ty Cobb hated Black people. Ty Cobb hated everybody."
He's certainly no Woodrow Wilson.
Why hate on WV? I hope the ghost of Chuck Yeager breaks the sound barrier over your house while riding on the back of a Pegasus.
Very entertaining. One thing that really struck me about the Russo-Japanese war in a book I read was that just getting the Russian fleet to the Pacific took 6 months; they were coal-fired and they had to be bunkered and refueled every few days....and then they got sunk right away.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23871147-hubris
That white room needs black curtains.
I feel bad for the flowers at the center of the table. They don’t deserve to be there.
(The following has zero relevance to the post. Go ahead and ignore.)
Note to IMBW Marketing: Today I was reviewing my recurring expenses and realized that many of them were for things that are stupid and / or worthless. Then I noticed that a subscription to IMBW is significantly less stupid than, and not nearly as worthless as, other items for which I pay more money. So I subscribed.
Now, whenever my ENT doc goes up my nose and pulls out the crayon lodged in my brain, the payline is gonna go up. At that time, there’s no guarantee that some impulse-purchased Substack subscription will make the cut. On the other hand, I may find that I need ever-increasing hits of this stuff to stop the tremors, in which case I’ll go back to Subscribe and kick it up a notch. Or I’ll just cruise along as I’m doing; we’ll see how it goes.
Great newsletter, by the way.
Fwiw, as a Ukrainian descended from rural kulaks, Hank Jr.’s “A Country Boy Can Survive” would be the literal story of my family if it had some balalaika….and I mean this as the highest compliment to both Hank and my ancestors…..
Great article! Psycho leader fun fact-Alexander the Great is likely considered a Slav by Putin due to his ethnic status as a Macedonia.
Insightful. Thanks for sharing.
Oh Russia. It's like they don't have the board game Risk in that country.
“a shit show wrapped inside a clusterfuck covered in ten feet of fucking snow”
For the live version, I recommend replacing the second "fuck" with something else, to avoid repetition. Maybe "ten feet of god damned snow"?
Jeff writes: "And, of course, what counts as an 'acceptable' concession is up to Ukraine, but we should probably think about fig leaves that Putin might be able to hide behind so that he can say 'I won' even though he didn’t."
To this point, I've developed a 4-point truce framework for consideration:
1. Hand over Crimea as officially Russia's.
>> This is fine because when Russia "took it" in 2014, Crimeans were (reportedly) fine with it. No resistance at all. And the international community essentially accepted it without a lot of puffery if we're being honest. So, might as well give Putin a "win" to tout at home for all of his invasion efforts. His "exit ramp" if you will.
2. The Future of the Donbas Region: Organize a vote and let them decide, democratically, which country they want to be associated with.
>> This lets self-governing rule the day which will annoy the hell out of Putin, but it does give Zelenskyy a tool to say "you might end up with even more of former Ukraine if they think you've earned their loyalty. Let's find out!"
3. Ukraine agrees to never join NATO unless provoked by Russia. If provoked, Ukraine would instantly join NATO.
>> This puts Ukraine's NATO alliance firmly in Russia's court. If Russia leaves Ukraine alone, Ukraine never joins NATO. Just like what Russia desires. But if Russia screws with Ukraine, Ukraine instantly joins NATO. The result? RUSSIA DECIDES if Ukraine joins NATO or not.
4. Economic sanctions against the Russian people (not the Oligarchs or Putin, yet) will be lifted slowly in accordance with how much Russia funds the rebuilding of what they broke/destroyed during the invasion.
>> This gives the world (and companies) an "off-ramp" to try to get 144 million people back into the global economy. Making Russia a complete pariah state might feel good, but it's bad for commerce; bad for everyone else's economy; and bad for the Russian culture.
>1. Hand over Crimea as officially Russia's.
Crimea was Russian since Ekaterina the Great until the forming of the USSR, and it remained ethnically predominantly Russian throughout until today. It's out of the USSR's dissolution that Crimea somehow emerged Ukrainian, due to a USSR-internal "transfer on paper".
So yea, that might work.
>2. The Future of the Donbas Region: Organize a vote and let them decide, democratically, which country they want to be associated with.
In 2021, UN recorded over 3000 killed civilians in Luhansk+Donetsk in the conflict ongoing since 2014 (+ another 10000 soldiers), cumulative. Predominantly separatists killed by Ukrainians, less so Ukrainians killed by separatists. This is all before Putin's 2022 invasion. And yes, the Azov battalion did play a prominent role in all that.
https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2030%20September%202021%20%28rev%208%20Oct%202021%29%20EN.pdf
If you wish to leave it to a vote, sure, that might work - but bear in mind the above eight years of killing when deciding where to draw the borders. If you draw it around the separatist areas, they will vote for joining Russia in an eyeblink. If you "dilute" that vote by including enough of the neighbouring region, the vote will be to stay in Ukraine - but you will then also retain a nasty arrangement with a mountain of hostilities.
>3. Ukraine agrees to never join NATO unless provoked by Russia. If provoked, Ukraine would instantly join NATO.
*This* should be the #1 - nay, the #0.
Maurer evidently perceives spheres of influence about as much as a fish perceives water. I.e. at best, they *might* exist if it's about Russia exerting influence in Belarus, or Saudi and Iran fighting it out over influence in Yemen, or everybody and their uncle fighting it out over influence in Syria. Or at worst, the creeping unease about how far exactly China's influence is reaching. (how much of Africa did China claim yet?)
But do spheres of influence exist when it comes to the spread of the globalist empire? "No siree. That's just the water, you see. You sir are just a deluded believer in the history of a dozen preceding centuries - except for the current century in which history has already ended, as we all know."
So, big yea on that one. Even better might be to resurrect the defunct "Unaligned Movement", the one kickstarted by Nasser, Nehru and Tito last century, which is also one of the underappreciated reasons for why the last century had not in fact seen WWIII explode. An "Unaligned 2.0" if you will, which a host of countries could join if they really wished to retain independence from the encroaching big powers. (well, since the current century lacks the equivalent of Nasser, Nehru and Tito, it means that the "Mexican-standoff substitute-for-unalignment" which you formulated above, might indeed be the best bet)
>4. Economic sanctions against the Russian people (not the Oligarchs or Putin, yet) will be lifted slowly in accordance with how much Russia funds the rebuilding of what they broke/destroyed during the invasion.
I'm onboard with economic sanctions specifically against Putin & The Oligarchs, but never saw a "moral" justification in economic sanctions against Russian people. There's also the seldom-mentioned but real sanctions against a bunch of other ordinary people who are affected by the explosion in carbohydrate prices, by the reduction in the supply of food (Russia's agricultural exports exceed its carbohydrate exports) etc. OK yes, I know, there's such a long list of cases where economic sanctions *did* result in the overthrow of a regime - a list so long that it would leave a post-it note virtually empty, but still make it immoral to *not* impose sanctions.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Very insightful. Sadly, and oddly, this very same truce framework was banned and removed from the /ukraine subreddit? A shame... many people apparently see it as gaslighting Ukraine.
It's a shame indeed. That fourteen-years-long flirting with NATO membership is the reason why Putin was *able* to assault Ukraine, and depressingly few people in the West understand that (or *wish* to understand that).
Putin *might or might not* have a brain tumor, but it's massively unlikely that all Russian generals have one.
Putin *is* an autocrat, but it's completely unlikely that he *could* launch any "military operation" that does not also have a heartfelt buy-in from the Russian generals.
Russian generals might or might not have heartfelt views on what should be the relations between Russia and the World Economic Forum, or on how much of Russia's reserves should be held in roubles, dollars or gold. But they *will* have heartfelt views on immediate-neighbour X agreeing to let NATO plant its roots on Russia's borders. (past the 1997 Yeltzin-the-Drunk era, at least). On that front, the Russian generals' buy-in is a given.
Fact is that the Russian army has engaged neighbour after neighbour, *after* the said neighbours started taking the NATO hardline. From its side, NATO a.k.a. the "purely defensive alliance" has attacked Lybia after Afghanistan after Serbia, but has fortunately not attacked Russia *yet*.
Did Ukraininans provide more resistance than Russian military planners thought? Practically certainly yes. But - as any observer may note - the Russian generals did not even *blink*. And for as long as NATO is on the table, I'm afraid that they won't.
Absent the "Unaligned 2.0", the Mexican standoff might indeed be the only way of assuring a non-WWIII end to this tragedy.
Great take! Super-fun to read and also educational. Edutainment!
Here's a summary of the Russo-Japanese war, with jokes: https://twitter.com/TheDreadShips/status/1485759160469889026
‘ Russia was basically the West Virginia of Europe’ 🤣😅🤣
Except without banjos.