Many of my social media contacts called Macron an authoritarian for his Covid measures, but still voted for him when they saw a politician with actual authoritarian sympathies. They would step barefoot on broken glass before they say anything nice about our government, but there is clearly *something* - be it competence, seriousness or sanity - that made them feel that although Macron was a Terrible President (they say), he was a Terrible President within the bounds expected from a French politician. Le Pen was seen as something else.
That's wholly consistent with very much not wanting a Macron presidency. If I'm forced to choose between catching the plague and catching cholera, and I choose cholera, that doesn't mean I dislike cholera only a little. Similarly, if someone ate a shit sandwich for me on Sunday, I might avoid saying anything like "can't have been THAT disgusting, hein?" to them. Especially if I had to convince them to eat another shit sandwich for me in 5 years!
wow. LOVED your piece. As an American expat living in Paris who JUST left America and was awash in GLOOM over the weekend, you nailed the entire experience and observation of this French presidency campaign. Nailed it. Love it!
As a recent arrival in France do you agree with what I believe is the American consensus that France's generous social services are ultimately detrimental to productivity and will need to be reduced to restore economic balance?
An entertaining interlude - thanks again. But the truly lasting significance, the palpable greatness, is embedded in your spot-on analysis and appreciation of Huey Lewis. Let Chait and Yglesias take on Elizabeth Warren, who out-Mondaled Mondale. You have shown beyond a doubt that there are bigger fish to fry. Keep up the good work!
No it didnt show "there's a market for political competence" As Macron himself admitted in his victory speech, he won because the left held their collective nose and voted for him to keep out the far right. In the first round he got 26% (hardly a ringing endorsement) LePen got 22% and Melenchon (left) got 21%. He's there as the leser of two evils- even he knows that.
Could we please all consider that the lesser of evils is, by definition, less evil than the alternative, and that we're usually throwing around the term evil a bit loosely? Be well -
The "lesser of two evils" is an expression, it doesn't actually mean they are both evil, however, its hardly a brilliant result when half the people who voted for Macron, voted solely to stop someone much worse
I spontaneously burst out with the Arsenio Hall single-arm-speed-bag-motion-while-barking a couple weeks ago when my kids did something good. It just came out of me I have no idea why. That would for sure get me cancelled. I’m already on the fence with my tween.
I had never watched that clip of Clinton playing saxophone on Arsenio. It's been three decades since I was in high school band, but his playing actually strikes me as pretty good. Certainly better than I could do if I tried to play something on a baritone horn now.
It is tricky to draw grand conclusions from individual elections, and people who jumped to the conclusion in late 2016 that populism (whatever that actually means) suddenly ate everything were being ahistorical — Berlusconi first became Italy's premier in 1994!
But I do think this election's results are a tad puzzling in light of the previous election. In 2017 Macron landslided Le Pen in round two, and this time he could've benefited from incumbent advantage and the 2020s tailwind that (nominally) center-left-to-left parties/candidates enjoyed in Portugal, Norway, Germany, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Honduras, New Zealand (and polling for Australia and Brazil). Instead Macron's victory margin over Le Pen nearly halved from 32% to 17%. I read that as a warning sign, and I hope Macron doesn't piss away the rest of that margin by trying to punch authoritarian neoliberal bullshit down France's throat.
I'm surprised that you told about Clinton acting cool without mentioning his worst attempt, when he said he tried marijuana in college but "didn't inhale." He seemed to try to be hip and straight at the same time but ended up being neither, like trying to sit between two bar stools.
Times were different. Marijuana use was much less acceptable to many and Clinton must have known there were too many witnesses to his toking to get away with a denial. So he signaled, with an obvious lie, that he regretted his use while not angering younger liberals. Political genius.
And the inevitable NYT and/or CNN spin on Macron's win: "Macron wins big in French Presidential Election: Why that's bad news for Joe Biden and the Democrats".
French here, there are two things I'd like to add. First, we can keep tempting Fate and smugly wonder how the American could possibly have elected Trump for an other five years. Hurray! Second, and more to the point of your column: when Le Pen was nearing Macron 51-49, most of the Mélenchon left-wing voters were saying they would never vote for Macron, to the point one poll showed more of them planning to vote for Le Pen than for Macron. But once the first round was over, they slowly came to their senses and realised the one thing they very much didn't want was a Le Pen presidency, so we ended up at 59-41.
Many of my social media contacts called Macron an authoritarian for his Covid measures, but still voted for him when they saw a politician with actual authoritarian sympathies. They would step barefoot on broken glass before they say anything nice about our government, but there is clearly *something* - be it competence, seriousness or sanity - that made them feel that although Macron was a Terrible President (they say), he was a Terrible President within the bounds expected from a French politician. Le Pen was seen as something else.
> But once the first round was over, they slowly came to their senses and realised the one thing they very much didn't want was a Le Pen presidency,
I'm not sure that description is accurate or prudent.
Mélenchon voters who backed Macron overwhelmingly did so to stop Le Pen rather than because they thought Macron would make a good president: 91%, according to Ipsos and Sopra Steria: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-04/Ipsos%20-%20Understanding%20the%20vote%20-%20second%20round.pdf.
That's wholly consistent with very much not wanting a Macron presidency. If I'm forced to choose between catching the plague and catching cholera, and I choose cholera, that doesn't mean I dislike cholera only a little. Similarly, if someone ate a shit sandwich for me on Sunday, I might avoid saying anything like "can't have been THAT disgusting, hein?" to them. Especially if I had to convince them to eat another shit sandwich for me in 5 years!
wow. LOVED your piece. As an American expat living in Paris who JUST left America and was awash in GLOOM over the weekend, you nailed the entire experience and observation of this French presidency campaign. Nailed it. Love it!
As a recent arrival in France do you agree with what I believe is the American consensus that France's generous social services are ultimately detrimental to productivity and will need to be reduced to restore economic balance?
An entertaining interlude - thanks again. But the truly lasting significance, the palpable greatness, is embedded in your spot-on analysis and appreciation of Huey Lewis. Let Chait and Yglesias take on Elizabeth Warren, who out-Mondaled Mondale. You have shown beyond a doubt that there are bigger fish to fry. Keep up the good work!
No it didnt show "there's a market for political competence" As Macron himself admitted in his victory speech, he won because the left held their collective nose and voted for him to keep out the far right. In the first round he got 26% (hardly a ringing endorsement) LePen got 22% and Melenchon (left) got 21%. He's there as the leser of two evils- even he knows that.
Could we please all consider that the lesser of evils is, by definition, less evil than the alternative, and that we're usually throwing around the term evil a bit loosely? Be well -
Could we please all consider that we're not, in the case at hand, "throwing around the term evil" loosely?
Macron is in fact an authoritarian racist (https://splained.substack.com/p/emmanuel-macron-was-always-a-racist) during whose presidency France bombed a wedding in Mali (https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/further-evidence-that-french-air-strikes-kill-civilians-in-mali-48673) and helped arm Russia (https://disclose.ngo/en/article/war-in-ukraine-how-france-delivered-weapons-to-russia-until-2020).
The "lesser of two evils" is an expression, it doesn't actually mean they are both evil, however, its hardly a brilliant result when half the people who voted for Macron, voted solely to stop someone much worse
It sounds like he was the first choice of a larger number of voters that Melenchon.
I spontaneously burst out with the Arsenio Hall single-arm-speed-bag-motion-while-barking a couple weeks ago when my kids did something good. It just came out of me I have no idea why. That would for sure get me cancelled. I’m already on the fence with my tween.
I had never watched that clip of Clinton playing saxophone on Arsenio. It's been three decades since I was in high school band, but his playing actually strikes me as pretty good. Certainly better than I could do if I tried to play something on a baritone horn now.
That thing about Le Pen being advised to "eroticize" the debate was actually worse when you read the whole quote from Le Monde:
"They recommended Marine Le Pen play the nation's mother, experienced and dominating, and to eroticize the debate. "
Your mom the dominatrix, eroticized. Who wouldn't vote for that!
It is tricky to draw grand conclusions from individual elections, and people who jumped to the conclusion in late 2016 that populism (whatever that actually means) suddenly ate everything were being ahistorical — Berlusconi first became Italy's premier in 1994!
But I do think this election's results are a tad puzzling in light of the previous election. In 2017 Macron landslided Le Pen in round two, and this time he could've benefited from incumbent advantage and the 2020s tailwind that (nominally) center-left-to-left parties/candidates enjoyed in Portugal, Norway, Germany, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Honduras, New Zealand (and polling for Australia and Brazil). Instead Macron's victory margin over Le Pen nearly halved from 32% to 17%. I read that as a warning sign, and I hope Macron doesn't piss away the rest of that margin by trying to punch authoritarian neoliberal bullshit down France's throat.
I'm surprised that you told about Clinton acting cool without mentioning his worst attempt, when he said he tried marijuana in college but "didn't inhale." He seemed to try to be hip and straight at the same time but ended up being neither, like trying to sit between two bar stools.
Clinton was running against HW Bush so that was plenty cool.
Also "didn't inhale" probably meant edibles.
Times were different. Marijuana use was much less acceptable to many and Clinton must have known there were too many witnesses to his toking to get away with a denial. So he signaled, with an obvious lie, that he regretted his use while not angering younger liberals. Political genius.
And the inevitable NYT and/or CNN spin on Macron's win: "Macron wins big in French Presidential Election: Why that's bad news for Joe Biden and the Democrats".