Anecdotally, Yes: Something's Wrong With California

A story to stand in for actual evidence

Photo by Jess Loiterton.

This week, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof wrote a column about progressive mis-governance of West Coast states. The column caused a stir, as you might expect: This was, after all, a callout from Nicholas Kristof, one of the leading voices of bleeding heart progressivism in the Tenderheart The Care Bear vein. To have Nicholas Kristof call your movement a bunch of dreamers and pussies (not a direct quote) is a bit like having Hunter Biden tell you that you need to sober up and get your shit together.

I have plenty of criticisms of West Coast-style progressivism. In particular, I think the aversion to building housing¹ and the abiding belief that enforcing the law is mean are causing big problems. But I admit that proving cause-and-effect relationships between ideologies and outcomes is difficult. For example: Kristoff cites various stats comparing the West unfavorably to blue states in the East, but Kevin Drum noted that California has seen a bigger drop in violent crime in the past three decades than the rest of the country. Neither guy is really wrong — outcomes depend on what metrics and timeframes you choose to observe. It’s also hard to compare outcomes in, say, California and Texas, because both are huge, both are subject to trends that have nothing to do with governance, and The People’s Republic of Austin is in the red state, while central California — which is basically Mississippi on the Mojave — is in the blue state. Federal laws affect things. Cultural differences affect things. My point is: It’s really hard to know what’s going on.

Since we’re unlikely to come across data that will render a clear verdict on California’s policy choices any time soon, allow me to offer an anecdote instead. This anecdote should — like all anecdotes — be take with a Gibraltar-sized grain of salt. But I’m offering it to Californians who might wonder if what’s going on in their state really is strange. I’ve spent my adult life in DC, New York, and Chicago, which is to say: My points of reference are big cities, not Gnome’s Knob, Iowa. I was in LA for four months in 2022. And in my opinion, LA was most definitely not like other cities I’ve lived in. I was frankly shocked by how bad it was. If Angelinos ever wonder if what they’re seeing is normal, my two cents is: No, LA seems to be in pretty bad shape.