The Lesson From Iraq That Gives Me Hope For Ukraine

It's not the lesson you might think

It’s hard to describe how badly I want Ukraine to win this war. I’m legitimately moved by the acts of heroism and stirring resilience from many people who hadn’t exactly won the “life on Easy Street” lottery to begin with. I know that some of what I’m reading is probably exaggerated, but if only a fraction of the stories are true, then it’s inspiring. Plus, I’m impressed that, between “Russian warship, go fuck yourself,” and “I need ammunition, not a ride,” one week of actual rebels fighting actual imperial forces has produced more good lines than the last six Star Wars movies combined.

Most analysts agree that — on a basic level — Russia’s invasion is likely to succeed. That is: Russia will probably reach some milestone that will allow them to say “invasion complete”. But then what? Nobody knows. They could install a puppet government, but that government will get bounced like a broke guy at a strip club the minute Russia leaves. They could make Zelensky sign a bullshit “peace agreement”, but that will have as much force of law as a missive from a high school Model UN conference. The “push on to Poland” option seems to literally be running out of gas on Ukrainian highways. What is the plan here? Is there a plan?

It makes sense to assume that Putin has a plan. In the interest of not underestimating your opponent, it’s good to act under the assumption that your adversary is a master strategist playing eight-dimensional chess, and not a glue-sniffing half-wit who currently has both hands stuck inside of pickle jars. But, sometimes, the second thing will be true. And the Iraq War — the most salient lived military conflict for most Americans — provides a vivid example of just how poorly leaders sometimes play their hands.