Maybe if I Yell at Nate Silver More, Harris Will Win
Though I’m already yelling at him a LOT
The news cycle in these critical days before the election tends to follow a pattern. Each day, Nate Silver’s election forecast model updates. Shortly thereafter, partisans for whichever side received bad news get on social media and bombard Nate with so much invective you’d think that he had karate kicked Dolly Parton. This complaining has become an election season tradition, much like election-themed Halloween costumes or giving a campaign your ex’s phone number so that they bug them, not you.
Personally, I want Harris to win. I think she’s by far the better choice, but Nate’s model doesn’t agree: As I write this, it gives Trump a 53-47 edge. I find that unbelievable – didn’t the model see the debate? Doesn’t it remember January 6? I’ve got some Huffington Post articles that I could send the model if it’s on the fence, because this is just baffling – why doesn’t Nate’s mechanical processor of polling data see the world like I do? And how much do I need to yell at this computer to get it to come around?
To be clear: I am already yelling at the computer a lot. When the model barely moved after Harris chose Walz as VP, I tweeted “UMMM…HELLLLO??? 👇👇👇” with a link to a SurveyMonkey poll showing Harris up by eight points nationally. I tweet something like that in response to the model pretty much every day – I’ll write “WRONG MUCH??? 😂” or “🙄🙄🙄” or “UN…FREAKING…REAL ¯\_(ツ)_/¯”, because…well, come on. The model feels so wrong! Literally no one I know is voting for Trump – not my neighbors here in DC, not friends from grad school, or any of my colleagues in the late-night comedy writing world! Is that factored into your model, Nate? It must not be, because I just named like 50 people, but your forecast shows almost half the country voting for Trump!